The Future of Unleaded Americans

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     In today's Sun-Times, Scott Stewart wrote about Christopher Steiner's new book, $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better.

     Steiner is an Evanston engineer and journalist, and was also featured in Rolling Stone last month.

     His book posits the drastic impact of increasing gas prices on American life.

     At $6, good-bye SUVs.  Revenues from gas taxes plunge, causing roads to crumble and bridges to collapse.  Highways are privatized; higher tolls.
     At $12, Americans flock to cities.  Detroit and Cleveland are reborn.  Suburbia becomes the new inner city.  Empty McMansions, abandoned malls.
     At $20, 90% of Americans live in cities; 70% never own a car.  Nuclear reactors power everything.  (Ah ha!  I told you I was seeing into the future on this one - Windmills )

     Nevertheless, I have to admit, I find the basic idea of the book a little assumptuous (new word created by Liz Lux).  I mean, is it inevitable that the price of gas will continue to go up, and up to $20 a gallon?  The price of oil was down last week.  It goes up and down all the time.  If the climbing of gas prices is inevitable, wouldn't folks be stocking up on oil futures right now?

     In any event, many economists say the economy will get worse.  So, aside from gas, the prices of all goods and services will start to weigh heavily on the American People.  At least, that is the opinion of Former Citizen.

     Forget that Steiner's talking about gasoline.  He's not analyzing gasoline.  He's analyzing the American People's commitment, in hard times, to greasing this machine - this machine that has taken over where American lives used to be...before corporations, before the federal reserve. 

     It's very interesting to think about life without sushi, which Steiner associates with a $16 a gallon gas price.  Or, life without Walmart which he speculates will occur at $14 a gallon.

     Soon enough, Americans we will be put in a position where we must reexamine our priorities.  We will have to decide where we want to be in a time when we can't travel so freely.  We'll have to figure out how to get food, how to make money, and decide what sacrifices we can endure to make our lives work again. 

      That's what this book does for its readers.  The scenarios it provides are a helpful guide for readers who want to plan for their future.  Check it out.

Photo by Bitzcelt

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2 Comments

People tend to forget that Malthusians used the same argument for coal before gas became widespread. Today, we still have large reserves of coal. The fact is, that human creativity is unpredictable and that's precisely what the austrian school tries to demonstrate. Those who pretend to know which directions things are going to go are liars or exploiters of people's fears to their own profit. Innovation isn't linear and we might very well find a new energy source tomorrow that will render oil obsolete, as coal in the 20th century.

Interesting but doubtful. Sounds more like sensationalism to sell books rather than thoughtful research & analysis. Demand will be destroyed exponentially as prices rise, and alternatives become economically viable. A quote I love about the "end of the oil age" is "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones". I have faith in the ingenuity of the human race, we will figure something out.

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